Friday, August 10, 2007

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get

The NOAA is forecasting a busier than normal hurricane season this year. They did last year, too; although 2006 turned out to be much milder than usual. And they did in 2005, and they were right in that case. And they did in pretty much every year for the past decade, and...oh, you'll just have to look up the data yourself, to see if they were right or wrong. The folktale is wrong: the public, or at least the media, is very forgiving of people crying wolf. No one wants egg on his face from having uttered "famous last words", after all.

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